Despite the global economic slowdown, China continues to grow, although at a slower pace. To maintain the pace of industrialization requires energy, particularly hydrocarbons. China has acquired E&P interests in in regions as varied as Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela, Sudan, West Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Canada. Numbers of downstream and upstream facilities are increasing to keep pace with its rising oil consumption, driven both from industrial demand as well as a burgeoning transportation market (The passenger vehicle market is growing at a 7-10% rate over a base of 15 million cars on the road).
As the energy industry booms in China, so is the number of expatriates working in that industry. The country is undergoing high speed modernization and along with it, many cultural changes.
I lived in Southern China for a year as an expat manager at Schlumberger. It was an eye opening experience for me, both professionally and personally. My wife, who had accompanied me, still feels that it was the best foreign posting location for us. The standard of living was particularly high. We also forged some long term & close knit relationships with other expat families there.
However I would urge any expats to venture out of the “expat ghetto” and get to know the real China. Mandarin is the primary language spoken by a vast majority of people in China. The language can be a bit tricky for someone to pick up initially particularly if you’re not used to East Asian languages. Most taxi drivers do not speak or read English. The best solution is to have the address of your destination written in Chinese. I used to carry cards with common words written on it to help me move around the city. It is not that hard to develop workable Mandarin in a couple of months. However, if you are looking for fluency, I recommend attending a language school.
Finding out about expat life in China is easier these days with various online forums and communities. The new visitor can get some valuable tips through these forums. I recommend Dan Washburn’s blog Shanghaiist . Dan’s a freelance writer but has some interesting stories, and slice of life vignettes, and tips for the recently arrived resident in China.
If you are considering taking up projects in China, my advices is set aside all your preconceptions about the country and discover first hand the exciting, wonderful and the sometimes exasperating experience there.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Thursday, January 8, 2009
2008: Looking back
The year 2008 will always be remembered for quite a few things, not least of all for the turmoil in the global economy, particularly in the financial sector where giants like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others tumbled. The same year also saw the extreme gyrations in the spot oil markets which had far reaching impacts across the world. Today, we look at the top energy stories and related developments during the year that went by – events that will affect many aspects of the year ahead.
Unprecedented crude oil price volatility
During the early part of the year, crude oil rose to its highest ever price of almost $150 per barrel. Peak Oil was almost ready to provide an explanation for it when prices slipped into a four year low of around $30 driven by the economic slump. There are many reasons for this – the demand-supply gap , speculation, political risk, etc. As a consequence, there was a fair amount of economic particularly in transportation- the price of gasoline shot up effecting many consumers.
The price rise also contributed to the poor performance of the airline and automobile sectors. contributing to bankruptcy and consolidation of airlines while the automobile industry faced deep financial trouble when people stopped buying low mileage vehicles.. Later, when the oil price tumbled, some non integrated oil companies were affected adversely, particularly those that made large bets on alternative fuels. The retail side was also impacted, companies such as Flying J declared bankruptcy.
Renewable energy took off, but then didn’t
There was renewed interest and impetus in alternative and renewable sources of energy in 2008. This was one of the direct fallouts of the oil price spike in the middle of 2008. Consumers were increasingly looking for sustainable sources of energy. . The US presidential elections put additional spotlight on this issue and the newly elected president Barak Obama has put a major focus on an attempt to shift away from fossil fuel in the long term.
However the opportunistic investments in alternatives haven’t panned out in the short term. Despite production mandates and federal subsidies, ethanol producers are not minting any money. Falling crude and rising corn prices were deleterious to the effort. Renewable energy enthusiasts hit ground reality when second generation ethanol was delayed. Range Fuels, who intended to start producing by 2008 initially delayed to 2009 and now production isn’t forecast to begin until 2010.
Environment,Nature and Politics
Some major oil refineries had to be shut down because of hurricane Gustav followed by hurricane Ike in North America. Though the outages were short termed, many gas stations in the southeast ran out of gas, raising concerns about starting of something more widespread.
Somali pirates proved to be a major threat to oil vessels operating out of the oil rich African continent. Emboldened by recent ransom payments, they hijacked a Saudi supertanker carrying oil worth $100 million. Countries with interest in the continent have stepped up their maritime security in the area which has considerably brought down the number of such incidents.
Political maneuvering in certain hotspots also created short term demand instabilities. Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela continued to have internal upheavals. The end of the year saw some additional volatility in the Middle East and in gas transport issues between Russia and Ukraine.
Record profits by oil companies
Despite the steep fall in oil prices during the later part of the year, integrated oil companies made record profits with the help of high prices during the beginning of the year. Companies like Exxon Mobil posted biggest profit in history during the same year when downstream profits in refining fell along with gasoline consumption.
OPEC went ahead with its big production cut to counter flagging demands, followed by lowered production in other countries like Russia and Mexico. The results are not visible yet, but many hope this together with a recovering economy will stabilize the oil prices in the near future.
Unprecedented crude oil price volatility
During the early part of the year, crude oil rose to its highest ever price of almost $150 per barrel. Peak Oil was almost ready to provide an explanation for it when prices slipped into a four year low of around $30 driven by the economic slump. There are many reasons for this – the demand-supply gap , speculation, political risk, etc. As a consequence, there was a fair amount of economic particularly in transportation- the price of gasoline shot up effecting many consumers.
The price rise also contributed to the poor performance of the airline and automobile sectors. contributing to bankruptcy and consolidation of airlines while the automobile industry faced deep financial trouble when people stopped buying low mileage vehicles.. Later, when the oil price tumbled, some non integrated oil companies were affected adversely, particularly those that made large bets on alternative fuels. The retail side was also impacted, companies such as Flying J declared bankruptcy.
Renewable energy took off, but then didn’t
There was renewed interest and impetus in alternative and renewable sources of energy in 2008. This was one of the direct fallouts of the oil price spike in the middle of 2008. Consumers were increasingly looking for sustainable sources of energy. . The US presidential elections put additional spotlight on this issue and the newly elected president Barak Obama has put a major focus on an attempt to shift away from fossil fuel in the long term.
However the opportunistic investments in alternatives haven’t panned out in the short term. Despite production mandates and federal subsidies, ethanol producers are not minting any money. Falling crude and rising corn prices were deleterious to the effort. Renewable energy enthusiasts hit ground reality when second generation ethanol was delayed. Range Fuels, who intended to start producing by 2008 initially delayed to 2009 and now production isn’t forecast to begin until 2010.
Environment,Nature and Politics
Some major oil refineries had to be shut down because of hurricane Gustav followed by hurricane Ike in North America. Though the outages were short termed, many gas stations in the southeast ran out of gas, raising concerns about starting of something more widespread.
Somali pirates proved to be a major threat to oil vessels operating out of the oil rich African continent. Emboldened by recent ransom payments, they hijacked a Saudi supertanker carrying oil worth $100 million. Countries with interest in the continent have stepped up their maritime security in the area which has considerably brought down the number of such incidents.
Political maneuvering in certain hotspots also created short term demand instabilities. Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela continued to have internal upheavals. The end of the year saw some additional volatility in the Middle East and in gas transport issues between Russia and Ukraine.
Record profits by oil companies
Despite the steep fall in oil prices during the later part of the year, integrated oil companies made record profits with the help of high prices during the beginning of the year. Companies like Exxon Mobil posted biggest profit in history during the same year when downstream profits in refining fell along with gasoline consumption.
OPEC went ahead with its big production cut to counter flagging demands, followed by lowered production in other countries like Russia and Mexico. The results are not visible yet, but many hope this together with a recovering economy will stabilize the oil prices in the near future.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Greener pastures
There are many threads of discussions on clean energy use. The recently concluded US presidential election probably was a catalyst for the uptick in these discussions, particularly in transportation, the area of alternative energy that seems to be most engaging to the average person.. In fact the Go Green” buzzword has gone crossed over from the environmentalists’ domain to the whole world at large. And today industry is responding. The future holds many promises with firms coming up with both fuel-efficient and cleaner options.
Where do we stand right now in terms of live projects of ultra low emission transportation options? Here are some recent advances in the field.
Battery powered cars
In 2008, Tesla Motors began producing the Tesla Roadster – a 100% electric sports car that does 0-60 miles per hour under four seconds a with top speed of around 200 kilometer per hour. That’s pretty fast by any standard, battery or gasoline. The car uses no gasoline and can boast of zero carbon emission (provided the battery is charged from a renewable energy source like solar panels). Single the charge is enough to last for over 350 kilometers. Priced at around $100,000 for two seater, this vehicle has been finding buyers among early adopters.
However, refueling is not as quick as with a vehicle that runs on petrol. It takes about three and a half hours to recharge a fully drained battery. Though it is unlikely to run down a battery before its overnight recharge in urban condition, but it is certainly not practical for long journeys or to places without access to electricity. Another concern is around power supply – if millions of such cars are plugged in, power grids will have to undergo costly grid expansion.
Hydrogen fuel-cell cars
Honda’s FCX Clarity is the world’s first production hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle. The outcome of over two decades of research is a non-polluting sedan (the only emission is water vapour) that can travel up to 450 kilometers on one tank and reach a speed of up to 160 kilometer per hour. The car runs on a lithium battery pack and a hydrogen storage tank. Fuel economy of the Honda FCX Clarity is twice than that of a similar size and performance gasoline powered car.
The disadvantage again is the availability of hydrogen filling stations. Even in the US distribution of hydrogen filling station is very sparse. There are just five hydrogen filling stations in the greater LA/Orange County area – where most of the cars are currently leased.
Plane that runs on gas
It is not just automobiles that are turning green. On February 2008, the Airbus A380 became the first commercial aircraft to fly with synthetic liquid fuel processed from gas. The fuel is produced using Fischer-Tropsch process and is known as gas-to-liquids (GTL). The European aircraft manufacturer has admitted it to be a “practical alternative to conventional jet fuel in the short term.”Moreover, GTL enjoys the many other advantages in terms of aircraft fuel burn and virtually free of impurities like sulphur. While the basic science for this has been around for a while, large scale commercial applications are taking off.
I think the next few years are likely to see many more advances such as these.
Where do we stand right now in terms of live projects of ultra low emission transportation options? Here are some recent advances in the field.
Battery powered cars
In 2008, Tesla Motors began producing the Tesla Roadster – a 100% electric sports car that does 0-60 miles per hour under four seconds a with top speed of around 200 kilometer per hour. That’s pretty fast by any standard, battery or gasoline. The car uses no gasoline and can boast of zero carbon emission (provided the battery is charged from a renewable energy source like solar panels). Single the charge is enough to last for over 350 kilometers. Priced at around $100,000 for two seater, this vehicle has been finding buyers among early adopters.
However, refueling is not as quick as with a vehicle that runs on petrol. It takes about three and a half hours to recharge a fully drained battery. Though it is unlikely to run down a battery before its overnight recharge in urban condition, but it is certainly not practical for long journeys or to places without access to electricity. Another concern is around power supply – if millions of such cars are plugged in, power grids will have to undergo costly grid expansion.
Hydrogen fuel-cell cars
Honda’s FCX Clarity is the world’s first production hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle. The outcome of over two decades of research is a non-polluting sedan (the only emission is water vapour) that can travel up to 450 kilometers on one tank and reach a speed of up to 160 kilometer per hour. The car runs on a lithium battery pack and a hydrogen storage tank. Fuel economy of the Honda FCX Clarity is twice than that of a similar size and performance gasoline powered car.
The disadvantage again is the availability of hydrogen filling stations. Even in the US distribution of hydrogen filling station is very sparse. There are just five hydrogen filling stations in the greater LA/Orange County area – where most of the cars are currently leased.
Plane that runs on gas
It is not just automobiles that are turning green. On February 2008, the Airbus A380 became the first commercial aircraft to fly with synthetic liquid fuel processed from gas. The fuel is produced using Fischer-Tropsch process and is known as gas-to-liquids (GTL). The European aircraft manufacturer has admitted it to be a “practical alternative to conventional jet fuel in the short term.”Moreover, GTL enjoys the many other advantages in terms of aircraft fuel burn and virtually free of impurities like sulphur. While the basic science for this has been around for a while, large scale commercial applications are taking off.
I think the next few years are likely to see many more advances such as these.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Think global, hire local
The Oil Boom of the 70’s saw a flurry of oil and gas exploration and production activity in the Middle East. Since there was a dearth of skilled manpower to sustain the fast growth in the region, international and national oil companies turned to experienced staff from overseas to make up for the talent shortage in the region. After 40 years of operation, the situation hasn’t changed much. Though there has been massive growth in the work force, the percentage of expatriates remains the same.
All was okay until recently. There has been an increase in violence directed at expatriates in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile local unemployment has been growing; Arthur Little’s report released this week highlights how this problem has been growing in the region. Yemen’s unemployment rate is 36%, Saudi Arabia’s is creeping up to 14%.
Finally the cost of expats, typically 2-5 times higher than locals, is also more difficult for NOCs to bear. With the populace seeking to “share the wealth” (eg, the agitations in the Niger delta) governments are interested in greater knowledge transfer, upskilling and general hiring of local talent. The Dept. of Petroleum Resources, Nigeria has recently issued a directive to oil and gas companies to hire local talents instead of expatriates. Similar guidelines are already being provided by licensing and governing bodies in growth regions such as Libya and Iraq.
Instead of viewing such directives as a handicap, International oil companies should make most of the situation to cement their relationships with national governing bodies, while NOCs can build up their image as national champions; giving practical solutions for their country’s expatriates dependence in the future. National oil companies’ aspiration to play a major role in the international energy market is very closely related to building local capability. As they venture into other countries, they will need the expertise to manage their growing international operations.
There is a financial imperative to this calculus too. Block awards and renewals are increasingly tied contractually to local workforce development. IOCs also worry about the approximate 50% of the current expatriate workforce that will retire by the next decade. There is no time like now to build a local workforce that will not only deliver the project at hand but may also be a springboard for regional expansion.
All was okay until recently. There has been an increase in violence directed at expatriates in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile local unemployment has been growing; Arthur Little’s report released this week highlights how this problem has been growing in the region. Yemen’s unemployment rate is 36%, Saudi Arabia’s is creeping up to 14%.
Finally the cost of expats, typically 2-5 times higher than locals, is also more difficult for NOCs to bear. With the populace seeking to “share the wealth” (eg, the agitations in the Niger delta) governments are interested in greater knowledge transfer, upskilling and general hiring of local talent. The Dept. of Petroleum Resources, Nigeria has recently issued a directive to oil and gas companies to hire local talents instead of expatriates. Similar guidelines are already being provided by licensing and governing bodies in growth regions such as Libya and Iraq.
Instead of viewing such directives as a handicap, International oil companies should make most of the situation to cement their relationships with national governing bodies, while NOCs can build up their image as national champions; giving practical solutions for their country’s expatriates dependence in the future. National oil companies’ aspiration to play a major role in the international energy market is very closely related to building local capability. As they venture into other countries, they will need the expertise to manage their growing international operations.
There is a financial imperative to this calculus too. Block awards and renewals are increasingly tied contractually to local workforce development. IOCs also worry about the approximate 50% of the current expatriate workforce that will retire by the next decade. There is no time like now to build a local workforce that will not only deliver the project at hand but may also be a springboard for regional expansion.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Oil & Gas hiring amidst Global Recession
Now that the global recession has become a household term and lay offs & pink slips have become a part of our daily vocabulary, you might find it odd to find large number of ads by oil & gas companies on job classifieds. Oil prices are less than half of what it used to be a few months back. So, why are the oil companies still hiring?
Sure, the worldwide economic growth is slowing and the low crude oil price IS affecting new projects. Prospects aren't too bright for any job, be it in Oil & Gas or any other sector. But if you work in the field, there are still plenty of interesting positions. Companies that have started new upstream activities will continue with their effort. Recession or not, that is still a lot of work waiting for workers to complete. In recent report on The Daily Times, a few local oil companies have stopped their hiring, larger companies continue to hire.
There are two major reasons behind it.
First reason is the basic economic principle of demand and supply. Demand for oil and gas remains high due to the emergence of new economies like China and India. Though China has come down from a blistering two digit growth, the current growth rate is at an enviable 9%. India too is not far behind. Even if oil demands slack from traditional giants America and Europe, new economies will continue to drive up the demand. Recently, the International Energy Agency predicts that China and India will need 300% more crude oil for their economies by 2030. This is good enough reason for oil companies to continue investing in exploration & production projects, either greenfield or in prepping older wells through enhanced oil recovery techniques.
The second major reason for this continuous hiring effort from the oil companies is talent shortage. Today, there are so many jobs, particularly in technical fields, filled by graying workers hired in the 1970s. Most of them will be reaching retirement age in a few years. While the oil and gas companies looking to rejuvenate its work force with young blood, your prospects of getting positions in this sector s remains strong.
Sure, the worldwide economic growth is slowing and the low crude oil price IS affecting new projects. Prospects aren't too bright for any job, be it in Oil & Gas or any other sector. But if you work in the field, there are still plenty of interesting positions. Companies that have started new upstream activities will continue with their effort. Recession or not, that is still a lot of work waiting for workers to complete. In recent report on The Daily Times, a few local oil companies have stopped their hiring, larger companies continue to hire.
There are two major reasons behind it.
First reason is the basic economic principle of demand and supply. Demand for oil and gas remains high due to the emergence of new economies like China and India. Though China has come down from a blistering two digit growth, the current growth rate is at an enviable 9%. India too is not far behind. Even if oil demands slack from traditional giants America and Europe, new economies will continue to drive up the demand. Recently, the International Energy Agency predicts that China and India will need 300% more crude oil for their economies by 2030. This is good enough reason for oil companies to continue investing in exploration & production projects, either greenfield or in prepping older wells through enhanced oil recovery techniques.
The second major reason for this continuous hiring effort from the oil companies is talent shortage. Today, there are so many jobs, particularly in technical fields, filled by graying workers hired in the 1970s. Most of them will be reaching retirement age in a few years. While the oil and gas companies looking to rejuvenate its work force with young blood, your prospects of getting positions in this sector s remains strong.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Oil below $40 per barrel?
Deutsche Bank AG has said that Oil prices may fall as low as $40 a barrel by April as demand collapses and production costs eases. In a report published on Bloomberg, Deutsche have said:
“Cash production cost ‘floors’ for the oil price are a shrinking target because of lower costs and a stronger U.S. dollar…This implies a `V' shaped downside to $40 a barrel crude around April 2009.”
Oil has dropped 63 percent from a record $147.27 in July. As on yesterday, crude futures hovered around $54 a barrel mark. In a separate item reported in the Financial Times, top executives from national oil company of China have predicted about $40 a barrel, thereby putting quiet a few new oil-exploration projects at risk of cancellation.
Oil that cheap is a major concern for big oil-producing countries like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela. Any cut in production by OPEC, the cartel of oil exporting countries, is not likely to be as effectual as it was once thought to be. OPEC’s previous announcement of output reduction of 1.5m barrels a day failed to revive the falling crude oil price. The group's biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, will “move cautiously” amid the increase in the supply of non-conventional oils such as ethanol in the U.S.
However, this development has another implication. Cheaper oil could also take out some steam out of the push for clean energy in the US – which is much costlier.
“Cash production cost ‘floors’ for the oil price are a shrinking target because of lower costs and a stronger U.S. dollar…This implies a `V' shaped downside to $40 a barrel crude around April 2009.”
Oil has dropped 63 percent from a record $147.27 in July. As on yesterday, crude futures hovered around $54 a barrel mark. In a separate item reported in the Financial Times, top executives from national oil company of China have predicted about $40 a barrel, thereby putting quiet a few new oil-exploration projects at risk of cancellation.
Oil that cheap is a major concern for big oil-producing countries like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela. Any cut in production by OPEC, the cartel of oil exporting countries, is not likely to be as effectual as it was once thought to be. OPEC’s previous announcement of output reduction of 1.5m barrels a day failed to revive the falling crude oil price. The group's biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, will “move cautiously” amid the increase in the supply of non-conventional oils such as ethanol in the U.S.
However, this development has another implication. Cheaper oil could also take out some steam out of the push for clean energy in the US – which is much costlier.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Busting some myths
There has been a fair amount of discussion about energy policies in the recent past, aided in no small part by the interest generated in the recently concluded U.S. presidential election. Some facts that were thrown about has been taken as received wisdom. We examine some of these here.
1. Oil companies are extracting extra “economic rents” for the high price of gasoline/petrol
There are many factors that resulted in the run up of gasoline price. About 70-75% of the price is that of crude and refining/distribution/service station charges. The government taxes comprises of 10-15% depending on regulatory regimes. At the end of the day, Oil and Gas companies earn about 5-10% as profit.
There are also several additional factors that impact the price at the pump- cost of exploration and development, cost of extraction (the cost of human services as part of this is another story- more on this in another post), refining cost (no new refineries have been commissioned in the US in the past 17 years). I also think that the cost of speculation was a big factor- note the rapid decline in price in the last two months as many margin call positions were liquidated in the oil futures markets.
2. Oil companies are not investing in alternative energies.
The U.S. oil and natural gas industry invested almost $100 billion between 2000 and 2005 in emerging energy technologies, including $12 billion in non-hydrocarbons and $42 billion in greenhouse gas emission mitigation technologies from 2000 to 2006. This is not mere green PR, but real investments.
There have also been some advances in less intrusive technologies for exploration and production. However, the industry has successfully developed breakthrough technologies like 4D seismic imaging and multi-directional drilling, which have helped reduce the industry’s environmental footprint dramatically. Today it is possible to develop nearly 80 square miles of area below the surface from a single two-acre site on the surface.
1. Oil companies are extracting extra “economic rents” for the high price of gasoline/petrol
There are many factors that resulted in the run up of gasoline price. About 70-75% of the price is that of crude and refining/distribution/service station charges. The government taxes comprises of 10-15% depending on regulatory regimes. At the end of the day, Oil and Gas companies earn about 5-10% as profit.
There are also several additional factors that impact the price at the pump- cost of exploration and development, cost of extraction (the cost of human services as part of this is another story- more on this in another post), refining cost (no new refineries have been commissioned in the US in the past 17 years). I also think that the cost of speculation was a big factor- note the rapid decline in price in the last two months as many margin call positions were liquidated in the oil futures markets.
2. Oil companies are not investing in alternative energies.
The U.S. oil and natural gas industry invested almost $100 billion between 2000 and 2005 in emerging energy technologies, including $12 billion in non-hydrocarbons and $42 billion in greenhouse gas emission mitigation technologies from 2000 to 2006. This is not mere green PR, but real investments.
There have also been some advances in less intrusive technologies for exploration and production. However, the industry has successfully developed breakthrough technologies like 4D seismic imaging and multi-directional drilling, which have helped reduce the industry’s environmental footprint dramatically. Today it is possible to develop nearly 80 square miles of area below the surface from a single two-acre site on the surface.
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