There has been a fair amount of hype in the biofuels arena over the last year or two. There were large project announcements on sugar/ corn based ethanol and cellulosic ethanol projects saw more activity beyond the blue print phase. Entrepreneurs also announced a slew of algae based culture for biofuel production. The hype was pretty thick until oil prices slid in late 2008, when a lot of projects started being shelved due to lower oil prices.
So where are we today? Are biofuels programs still going strong? Is the economic platform strong enough to weather the price deflation and volatility of these days? Has the credit crunch affected project financing?
These questions can be answered to a large part by the goverment policies and intervention. Regulatory & energy policies will affect much of the development of this field in the near future. The EU already has a strong set of incentives and program extensions for biofuels development and deployment at the retail end. The US has mandated that by 2022 7% of transportation gasoline come from cellulosic ethanol. The expectation is that the Obama administration will funnel more dollars on R&D in this area. Pure play biofuel companies such as Amyris are already moving along the path to commercialization in anticipation of these incentives.
The market for transportation biofuels is likely to be pretty large. Sandia Labs just released a report this week that found plant and forestry waste and dedicated energy crops could sustainably replace nearly a third of gasoline use in the US by the year 2030.
With those kinds of forecasts, its no wonder there has a steady drip of new venture investments in biofuels. Last year VCs , including a lot of marquee names like Vinod Khosla, funded biofuels startups to the tune of $680 million. Now even the majors are expanding their role. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that BP will be developing the world's biggest cellulosic biofuels plant in Florida through its partner Verenium.
The coming months will give a better picture on the investment climate for biofuels projects. The overall trend though is looking positive for the bio fuels industry.
Showing posts with label Oil prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil prices. Show all posts
Friday, February 20, 2009
Thursday, January 8, 2009
2008: Looking back
The year 2008 will always be remembered for quite a few things, not least of all for the turmoil in the global economy, particularly in the financial sector where giants like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others tumbled. The same year also saw the extreme gyrations in the spot oil markets which had far reaching impacts across the world. Today, we look at the top energy stories and related developments during the year that went by – events that will affect many aspects of the year ahead.
Unprecedented crude oil price volatility
During the early part of the year, crude oil rose to its highest ever price of almost $150 per barrel. Peak Oil was almost ready to provide an explanation for it when prices slipped into a four year low of around $30 driven by the economic slump. There are many reasons for this – the demand-supply gap , speculation, political risk, etc. As a consequence, there was a fair amount of economic particularly in transportation- the price of gasoline shot up effecting many consumers.
The price rise also contributed to the poor performance of the airline and automobile sectors. contributing to bankruptcy and consolidation of airlines while the automobile industry faced deep financial trouble when people stopped buying low mileage vehicles.. Later, when the oil price tumbled, some non integrated oil companies were affected adversely, particularly those that made large bets on alternative fuels. The retail side was also impacted, companies such as Flying J declared bankruptcy.
Renewable energy took off, but then didn’t
There was renewed interest and impetus in alternative and renewable sources of energy in 2008. This was one of the direct fallouts of the oil price spike in the middle of 2008. Consumers were increasingly looking for sustainable sources of energy. . The US presidential elections put additional spotlight on this issue and the newly elected president Barak Obama has put a major focus on an attempt to shift away from fossil fuel in the long term.
However the opportunistic investments in alternatives haven’t panned out in the short term. Despite production mandates and federal subsidies, ethanol producers are not minting any money. Falling crude and rising corn prices were deleterious to the effort. Renewable energy enthusiasts hit ground reality when second generation ethanol was delayed. Range Fuels, who intended to start producing by 2008 initially delayed to 2009 and now production isn’t forecast to begin until 2010.
Environment,Nature and Politics
Some major oil refineries had to be shut down because of hurricane Gustav followed by hurricane Ike in North America. Though the outages were short termed, many gas stations in the southeast ran out of gas, raising concerns about starting of something more widespread.
Somali pirates proved to be a major threat to oil vessels operating out of the oil rich African continent. Emboldened by recent ransom payments, they hijacked a Saudi supertanker carrying oil worth $100 million. Countries with interest in the continent have stepped up their maritime security in the area which has considerably brought down the number of such incidents.
Political maneuvering in certain hotspots also created short term demand instabilities. Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela continued to have internal upheavals. The end of the year saw some additional volatility in the Middle East and in gas transport issues between Russia and Ukraine.
Record profits by oil companies
Despite the steep fall in oil prices during the later part of the year, integrated oil companies made record profits with the help of high prices during the beginning of the year. Companies like Exxon Mobil posted biggest profit in history during the same year when downstream profits in refining fell along with gasoline consumption.
OPEC went ahead with its big production cut to counter flagging demands, followed by lowered production in other countries like Russia and Mexico. The results are not visible yet, but many hope this together with a recovering economy will stabilize the oil prices in the near future.
Unprecedented crude oil price volatility
During the early part of the year, crude oil rose to its highest ever price of almost $150 per barrel. Peak Oil was almost ready to provide an explanation for it when prices slipped into a four year low of around $30 driven by the economic slump. There are many reasons for this – the demand-supply gap , speculation, political risk, etc. As a consequence, there was a fair amount of economic particularly in transportation- the price of gasoline shot up effecting many consumers.
The price rise also contributed to the poor performance of the airline and automobile sectors. contributing to bankruptcy and consolidation of airlines while the automobile industry faced deep financial trouble when people stopped buying low mileage vehicles.. Later, when the oil price tumbled, some non integrated oil companies were affected adversely, particularly those that made large bets on alternative fuels. The retail side was also impacted, companies such as Flying J declared bankruptcy.
Renewable energy took off, but then didn’t
There was renewed interest and impetus in alternative and renewable sources of energy in 2008. This was one of the direct fallouts of the oil price spike in the middle of 2008. Consumers were increasingly looking for sustainable sources of energy. . The US presidential elections put additional spotlight on this issue and the newly elected president Barak Obama has put a major focus on an attempt to shift away from fossil fuel in the long term.
However the opportunistic investments in alternatives haven’t panned out in the short term. Despite production mandates and federal subsidies, ethanol producers are not minting any money. Falling crude and rising corn prices were deleterious to the effort. Renewable energy enthusiasts hit ground reality when second generation ethanol was delayed. Range Fuels, who intended to start producing by 2008 initially delayed to 2009 and now production isn’t forecast to begin until 2010.
Environment,Nature and Politics
Some major oil refineries had to be shut down because of hurricane Gustav followed by hurricane Ike in North America. Though the outages were short termed, many gas stations in the southeast ran out of gas, raising concerns about starting of something more widespread.
Somali pirates proved to be a major threat to oil vessels operating out of the oil rich African continent. Emboldened by recent ransom payments, they hijacked a Saudi supertanker carrying oil worth $100 million. Countries with interest in the continent have stepped up their maritime security in the area which has considerably brought down the number of such incidents.
Political maneuvering in certain hotspots also created short term demand instabilities. Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela continued to have internal upheavals. The end of the year saw some additional volatility in the Middle East and in gas transport issues between Russia and Ukraine.
Record profits by oil companies
Despite the steep fall in oil prices during the later part of the year, integrated oil companies made record profits with the help of high prices during the beginning of the year. Companies like Exxon Mobil posted biggest profit in history during the same year when downstream profits in refining fell along with gasoline consumption.
OPEC went ahead with its big production cut to counter flagging demands, followed by lowered production in other countries like Russia and Mexico. The results are not visible yet, but many hope this together with a recovering economy will stabilize the oil prices in the near future.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Oil & Gas hiring amidst Global Recession
Now that the global recession has become a household term and lay offs & pink slips have become a part of our daily vocabulary, you might find it odd to find large number of ads by oil & gas companies on job classifieds. Oil prices are less than half of what it used to be a few months back. So, why are the oil companies still hiring?
Sure, the worldwide economic growth is slowing and the low crude oil price IS affecting new projects. Prospects aren't too bright for any job, be it in Oil & Gas or any other sector. But if you work in the field, there are still plenty of interesting positions. Companies that have started new upstream activities will continue with their effort. Recession or not, that is still a lot of work waiting for workers to complete. In recent report on The Daily Times, a few local oil companies have stopped their hiring, larger companies continue to hire.
There are two major reasons behind it.
First reason is the basic economic principle of demand and supply. Demand for oil and gas remains high due to the emergence of new economies like China and India. Though China has come down from a blistering two digit growth, the current growth rate is at an enviable 9%. India too is not far behind. Even if oil demands slack from traditional giants America and Europe, new economies will continue to drive up the demand. Recently, the International Energy Agency predicts that China and India will need 300% more crude oil for their economies by 2030. This is good enough reason for oil companies to continue investing in exploration & production projects, either greenfield or in prepping older wells through enhanced oil recovery techniques.
The second major reason for this continuous hiring effort from the oil companies is talent shortage. Today, there are so many jobs, particularly in technical fields, filled by graying workers hired in the 1970s. Most of them will be reaching retirement age in a few years. While the oil and gas companies looking to rejuvenate its work force with young blood, your prospects of getting positions in this sector s remains strong.
Sure, the worldwide economic growth is slowing and the low crude oil price IS affecting new projects. Prospects aren't too bright for any job, be it in Oil & Gas or any other sector. But if you work in the field, there are still plenty of interesting positions. Companies that have started new upstream activities will continue with their effort. Recession or not, that is still a lot of work waiting for workers to complete. In recent report on The Daily Times, a few local oil companies have stopped their hiring, larger companies continue to hire.
There are two major reasons behind it.
First reason is the basic economic principle of demand and supply. Demand for oil and gas remains high due to the emergence of new economies like China and India. Though China has come down from a blistering two digit growth, the current growth rate is at an enviable 9%. India too is not far behind. Even if oil demands slack from traditional giants America and Europe, new economies will continue to drive up the demand. Recently, the International Energy Agency predicts that China and India will need 300% more crude oil for their economies by 2030. This is good enough reason for oil companies to continue investing in exploration & production projects, either greenfield or in prepping older wells through enhanced oil recovery techniques.
The second major reason for this continuous hiring effort from the oil companies is talent shortage. Today, there are so many jobs, particularly in technical fields, filled by graying workers hired in the 1970s. Most of them will be reaching retirement age in a few years. While the oil and gas companies looking to rejuvenate its work force with young blood, your prospects of getting positions in this sector s remains strong.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Oil below $40 per barrel?
Deutsche Bank AG has said that Oil prices may fall as low as $40 a barrel by April as demand collapses and production costs eases. In a report published on Bloomberg, Deutsche have said:
“Cash production cost ‘floors’ for the oil price are a shrinking target because of lower costs and a stronger U.S. dollar…This implies a `V' shaped downside to $40 a barrel crude around April 2009.”
Oil has dropped 63 percent from a record $147.27 in July. As on yesterday, crude futures hovered around $54 a barrel mark. In a separate item reported in the Financial Times, top executives from national oil company of China have predicted about $40 a barrel, thereby putting quiet a few new oil-exploration projects at risk of cancellation.
Oil that cheap is a major concern for big oil-producing countries like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela. Any cut in production by OPEC, the cartel of oil exporting countries, is not likely to be as effectual as it was once thought to be. OPEC’s previous announcement of output reduction of 1.5m barrels a day failed to revive the falling crude oil price. The group's biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, will “move cautiously” amid the increase in the supply of non-conventional oils such as ethanol in the U.S.
However, this development has another implication. Cheaper oil could also take out some steam out of the push for clean energy in the US – which is much costlier.
“Cash production cost ‘floors’ for the oil price are a shrinking target because of lower costs and a stronger U.S. dollar…This implies a `V' shaped downside to $40 a barrel crude around April 2009.”
Oil has dropped 63 percent from a record $147.27 in July. As on yesterday, crude futures hovered around $54 a barrel mark. In a separate item reported in the Financial Times, top executives from national oil company of China have predicted about $40 a barrel, thereby putting quiet a few new oil-exploration projects at risk of cancellation.
Oil that cheap is a major concern for big oil-producing countries like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela. Any cut in production by OPEC, the cartel of oil exporting countries, is not likely to be as effectual as it was once thought to be. OPEC’s previous announcement of output reduction of 1.5m barrels a day failed to revive the falling crude oil price. The group's biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, will “move cautiously” amid the increase in the supply of non-conventional oils such as ethanol in the U.S.
However, this development has another implication. Cheaper oil could also take out some steam out of the push for clean energy in the US – which is much costlier.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Busting some myths
There has been a fair amount of discussion about energy policies in the recent past, aided in no small part by the interest generated in the recently concluded U.S. presidential election. Some facts that were thrown about has been taken as received wisdom. We examine some of these here.
1. Oil companies are extracting extra “economic rents” for the high price of gasoline/petrol
There are many factors that resulted in the run up of gasoline price. About 70-75% of the price is that of crude and refining/distribution/service station charges. The government taxes comprises of 10-15% depending on regulatory regimes. At the end of the day, Oil and Gas companies earn about 5-10% as profit.
There are also several additional factors that impact the price at the pump- cost of exploration and development, cost of extraction (the cost of human services as part of this is another story- more on this in another post), refining cost (no new refineries have been commissioned in the US in the past 17 years). I also think that the cost of speculation was a big factor- note the rapid decline in price in the last two months as many margin call positions were liquidated in the oil futures markets.
2. Oil companies are not investing in alternative energies.
The U.S. oil and natural gas industry invested almost $100 billion between 2000 and 2005 in emerging energy technologies, including $12 billion in non-hydrocarbons and $42 billion in greenhouse gas emission mitigation technologies from 2000 to 2006. This is not mere green PR, but real investments.
There have also been some advances in less intrusive technologies for exploration and production. However, the industry has successfully developed breakthrough technologies like 4D seismic imaging and multi-directional drilling, which have helped reduce the industry’s environmental footprint dramatically. Today it is possible to develop nearly 80 square miles of area below the surface from a single two-acre site on the surface.
1. Oil companies are extracting extra “economic rents” for the high price of gasoline/petrol
There are many factors that resulted in the run up of gasoline price. About 70-75% of the price is that of crude and refining/distribution/service station charges. The government taxes comprises of 10-15% depending on regulatory regimes. At the end of the day, Oil and Gas companies earn about 5-10% as profit.
There are also several additional factors that impact the price at the pump- cost of exploration and development, cost of extraction (the cost of human services as part of this is another story- more on this in another post), refining cost (no new refineries have been commissioned in the US in the past 17 years). I also think that the cost of speculation was a big factor- note the rapid decline in price in the last two months as many margin call positions were liquidated in the oil futures markets.
2. Oil companies are not investing in alternative energies.
The U.S. oil and natural gas industry invested almost $100 billion between 2000 and 2005 in emerging energy technologies, including $12 billion in non-hydrocarbons and $42 billion in greenhouse gas emission mitigation technologies from 2000 to 2006. This is not mere green PR, but real investments.
There have also been some advances in less intrusive technologies for exploration and production. However, the industry has successfully developed breakthrough technologies like 4D seismic imaging and multi-directional drilling, which have helped reduce the industry’s environmental footprint dramatically. Today it is possible to develop nearly 80 square miles of area below the surface from a single two-acre site on the surface.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Double trouble: deflationary oil prices & financial meltdown
Overlapping Crises
The current financial crisis has ballooned around the world economy and there are fears that this international recession could even trigger a global economic meltdown. Most economic analysts are predicting that it will get worse before it gets better. This is reflected in some of the recent downswings in stock markets worldwide as near term recessionary expectations are being priced in today. The channels of credit have dried up and businesses small and large have been plagued by a credit crunch.
The other key trend is in the sharp volatility of hydrocarbons prices. After a remarkable run up over the last two years, crude prices have plummeted over the past few months. We hit $58 for crude today; and will probably drop further as the global demand cycle weakens in the near term. While there are many factors driving the price of oil (demand- supply, speculation, political risk, etc), it is undeniable that there has been some demand destruction due to unsustainable high prices in the $150 range.
Effect on Projects
So how is this price deflation and the economic crisis at large going to effect the industry, and industry jobs in particular?
In the last few years, quite a few operators were able to leverage cheap credit and high commodity prices to finance large new exploration projects in some new areas. However with the squeeze in the credit markets, some of these projects are either being put on hold or delayed. Small cap companies are scaling back operations, seeking new partners or have become targets for acquisition. There are other companies are also restructuring their project plans to tide over the current period of economic uncertainty. Shell recently announced the delay of its oil sands project in Canada, Yemen has also delayed its gas production outlook. However, most large cap integrated oil companies are not cutting back as they did not factor in prices in the $140 range while making their investment decisions. This is also the case for most national oil companies.
In the long term, my sense is that the demand-supply equation will be unbalanced. The IEA predicted last week in its World Energy Outlook that by 2010 oil companies will have to commit to projects producing almost as 7m barrels a day – if the world is to avoid a supply crunch by the middle of the next decade. This is due to the steep rates of decline in existing fields to meet demand of growing economies like China and India. Further investments should stanch the natural rate of output decline of 9% down to 6.7%. As a result they have predicted a price range greater than $100 by 2015.
Outlook
So the question is how will the credit crunch and lower oil prices affect the labor market in the Oil and Gas industry? Will it stall the recruitment and talent acquisition process? Are we going to see a repeat of the layoffs of the 1980s?
It’s early to say right now; we may have more volatility coming down the pike. But over the medium term once key economies right themselves, demand should increase. China has taken a good step in that direction this week. Only time will tell, but I feel pretty optimistic.
What do you think?
The current financial crisis has ballooned around the world economy and there are fears that this international recession could even trigger a global economic meltdown. Most economic analysts are predicting that it will get worse before it gets better. This is reflected in some of the recent downswings in stock markets worldwide as near term recessionary expectations are being priced in today. The channels of credit have dried up and businesses small and large have been plagued by a credit crunch.
The other key trend is in the sharp volatility of hydrocarbons prices. After a remarkable run up over the last two years, crude prices have plummeted over the past few months. We hit $58 for crude today; and will probably drop further as the global demand cycle weakens in the near term. While there are many factors driving the price of oil (demand- supply, speculation, political risk, etc), it is undeniable that there has been some demand destruction due to unsustainable high prices in the $150 range.
Effect on Projects
So how is this price deflation and the economic crisis at large going to effect the industry, and industry jobs in particular?
In the last few years, quite a few operators were able to leverage cheap credit and high commodity prices to finance large new exploration projects in some new areas. However with the squeeze in the credit markets, some of these projects are either being put on hold or delayed. Small cap companies are scaling back operations, seeking new partners or have become targets for acquisition. There are other companies are also restructuring their project plans to tide over the current period of economic uncertainty. Shell recently announced the delay of its oil sands project in Canada, Yemen has also delayed its gas production outlook. However, most large cap integrated oil companies are not cutting back as they did not factor in prices in the $140 range while making their investment decisions. This is also the case for most national oil companies.
In the long term, my sense is that the demand-supply equation will be unbalanced. The IEA predicted last week in its World Energy Outlook that by 2010 oil companies will have to commit to projects producing almost as 7m barrels a day – if the world is to avoid a supply crunch by the middle of the next decade. This is due to the steep rates of decline in existing fields to meet demand of growing economies like China and India. Further investments should stanch the natural rate of output decline of 9% down to 6.7%. As a result they have predicted a price range greater than $100 by 2015.
Outlook
So the question is how will the credit crunch and lower oil prices affect the labor market in the Oil and Gas industry? Will it stall the recruitment and talent acquisition process? Are we going to see a repeat of the layoffs of the 1980s?
It’s early to say right now; we may have more volatility coming down the pike. But over the medium term once key economies right themselves, demand should increase. China has taken a good step in that direction this week. Only time will tell, but I feel pretty optimistic.
What do you think?
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