Securing stable access to oil and gas supplies has become central to China’s economic growth which in turn underpins political stability. So China has been looking outside, in different corners of the world, to find its energy supplies. Until recently the country focused primarily on the Middle East for oil supplies. It was one of the few countries trading with the former regime in Iraq and had large production sharing contracts which were cancelled with the US and allies invasion in 2003. China has also been doing deals in Iran; earlier this year a Chinese state-owned enterprise signed a $2 billion deal to develop the Azadegan field. Nevertheless China recognizes the geopolitical issues and the significance strategically of the Middle East for both the United States and Europe so has set its sights on other areas. China has been prospecting aggressively in the Caspian region and Africa.
Although Africa holds only about 9% of the world’s total proven oil reserves compared to more than 60% in the Middle East, it may hold significant untapped resources. From 2002 to 2003, trade between China and Africa doubled to $18.5 billion; by 2007, it had reached $73 billion – including substantial crude oil imports from Sudan and other African countries. Hydrocarbon rich African countries have decade long relationships with Western oil companies. Wood Mackenzie estimates Chinese companies hold under 2 percent of Africa's known oil reserves – many of these assets were previously held, explored and relinquished by the IOCs. And much of the potential resource growth is in technically challenging deepwater blocks in Angola and Nigeria.
China’s share of Africa’s oil is however growing. Two factors have been driving this. Firstly China’s foreign policy of non-interference in the domestic affairs of its trading partners. Sudan’s government resisted international pressure over its actions in Darfur. How significant was the combination of China’s veto in the UN Security Council and the export of 60% of Sudan’s oil production to China? China also uses aid to provide leverage, supplying easy credit and development knowhow in places as diverse as Gabon and Congo. The Council on Foreign Relations put out a very thoughtful paper last year detailing the growth of Sino-African relations. Oil is the common denominator and China is expected increasingly to use a combination of aid, trade and knowledge transfer to expand its influence in the region and increase its imports. Will the new Obama administration’s clearly stated preferences for reducing its oil import dependency and diversifying to alternative sources of energy give China an opening to construct more deals and expand its presence in Africa in the coming years?
We’ve also recently seen China adopt a model of more direct ownership, fully or partly, of foreign companies. The US congress shot down CNOOC’s attempt to buy into Unocal during the last phase of industry consolidation - but that was in a very different world and has not stopped China’s NOCs from evaluating other options. Will the announcement earlier this month of Chinalco’s proposed massive investment in Rio Tinto be a precursor of similar deals in the oil & gas industry ?
About the author:
Ian Rushby had a 30-year career in BP plc where he held various business leadership, commercial, planning and control positions in BP’s Head Office and Exploration, Finance, Coal and Gas divisions, working in London, the Netherlands, Indonesia, USA and Russia. His most recent assignment was Group General Auditor of BP plc, reporting to the Group Chief Executive, the Board Audit Committee and the Ethics and Environment Assurance Committee. He is also a non-executive Director, Ministry of Defence, UK and Chairman of the Defence Audit Committee.
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